Lebanese fear all-out war, but hope for political compromise
May 11, 2008BEIRUT - Lebanon hung between fears of all-out civil war and hopes of political compromise Sunday even as government supporters and opponents battled with rockets and machine-guns in the mountains overlooking the capital.
Clashes shifted to outside Beirut over the weekend and fighting on Sunday saw the collapse of pro-government forces in the Aley region near the capital, a stronghold of anti-Syrian Druse leader Walid Jumblatt.
Beirut was quiet and the streets largely deserted a day after Hezbollah gunmen heeded a call by the army for the Shiite fighters to clear out.
The opposition continued to block many roads including the one to the airport in protest against the government. There have been no incoming or outgoing flights for several days.
The city had been the focus of four days of Sunni-Shiite clashes that culminated with Hezbollah seizing large swaths of Muslim West Beirut - demonstrating its military might in a showdown with the U.S.-backed government.
So far, 38 people have been killed in clashes that began Wednesday, the worst sectarian violence since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
The violence grew out of a power struggle between the Hezbollah-led opposition and the government. The opposition quit the cabinet 18 months ago, demanding larger representation that would give them veto power over government decisions. The deadlock has kept parliament from electing a new president since November.
Across the country, there were fears of a slide into civil war.
"I don't believe this is the end," said Hala, a 32-year-old employee of an insurance company who lives in an upscale area of the Muslim sector that saw fighting three days ago. "They haven't solved the problem yet. There will be another round."
But some analysts see Hezbollah's demonstration of its power as paving the way for a solution to the political crisis.
"The opposition is in control now. These military victories have to be translated politically," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a political science professor who is an expert on Hezbollah.
"You can't have a civil war when there is one group that is militarily superior to the others," she said, referring to Hezbollah.
The violence was sparked when the government confronted Hezbollah with decisions to sack the chief of airport security for alleged ties to the militant group and to declare Hezbollah's private telephone network illegal. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the decisions amounted to a declaration of war.
Ghorayeb said nobody expected Hezbollah to retaliate so harshly, but that she now expects the group's achievements on the ground to force the government into a compromise.
"Hezbollah crossed the threshold and gained its own momentum," she said. "Given that Beirut fell so quickly, the opposition saw that this was a golden opportunity to force the government into a compromise that would be tilted in its favour."
Hezbollah's show of force in Beirut was a blow to Washington. The U.S. has long considered Hezbollah a terrorist group and condemned its ties to Syria and Iran.
The conflict has also heightened concern in the Middle East and the West over Iran's growing influence in the region.
With Beirut mostly pacified, clashes shifted to outside the capital. Overnight, there were fierce clashes in the north, particularly in the city of Tripoli. One woman was killed.
Heavy fighting also broke out Sunday between government supporters and opponents in the central mountain town of Aytat and surrounding areas, about 15 kilometres from Beirut. The sounds of heavy machine-gun fire and explosions rolled across the capital.
The clashes came a day after Hezbollah accused followers of Jumblatt, the Druse leader, of killing two of their supporters and kidnapping a third.
As the fighting raged in the mountain region, black smoke could be seen billowing from Druse villages. The violence spread to the nearby towns of Kayfoun, Qamatiyeh, Bchamoun and Chouweifat, witnesses said.
The area had been controlled mostly by Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party and its militia
Speaking later to private LBC television, a subdued-sounding Jumblatt implicitly called on his militiamen to give up their positions in the Aytat area and hand them over to the army.
"I say to my followers that civil peace and stopping the war and destruction is above any other consideration," he said.
Fighting subsided by the evening and the army began deploying in the region. Jumblatt's supporters were handing over their weapons to the army.
The army, which is respected by Hezbollah, has played a central role in defusing the violence in Beirut. It remained neutral in the conflict and did not intervene as Shiite gunmen overran neighbourhoods in the capital.
But when it called Saturday for Shiite gunmen to leave the streets, the fighters cleared out. The army then deployed widely around west Beirut in their place.
The military also became the mediator in the political conflict, offering Hezbollah a compromise on Saturday which would allow the airport security chief to retain his post and recommending the government reverse its decision on the phone network.
Army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman is the consensus candidate for president and the army's success in calming Beirut could enhance his chances of being elected.
